Scientists say El Niño is getting stronger, and Jamaica could be in drought by October or November. The warning covers this heat season, which runs through October.
On Tuesday the Jamaica Observer reported a joint statement from the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology and the UWI Climate Studies Group Mona. CIMH climatologist Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck said El Niño went from weak around May to moderate by July. He said there is a high chance of very strong conditions from October to December 2026, lasting into the Caribbean dry season in March 2027. Below-normal rain can continue into 2027. The next heat season, March to May, could bring record heat. The statement also lists humid heat, wildfires, marine heatwaves, and coral bleaching.
The same release puts parts of the Greater Antilles, including Jamaica, among the places that could see drought from less rain and more evaporation. It names rain-fed farming as a particular concern. Hotels would need more cooling and freshwater. Water and energy systems take the same strain.
Professor Michael Taylor, co-director of UWI’s Climate Studies Group Mona, said: “The risks signalled by the science earlier this year are now beginning to materialise. We are seeing an emerging climate disaster whose impacts combine heat, drought and marine extremes. Unlike a hurricane, the impacts will continue to build over months.”
Van Meerbeeck also said a quieter Atlantic hurricane season, which El Niño often brings, does not remove the chance of a serious storm. CIMH’s early-August outlook found the rest of 2026 could produce fewer storms than average.
What this means. Most outdoor work in Jamaica is still planned around rain. Heat is slower, and the crew feels it first: a lunchtime activation on hot asphalt, a festival gate with no shade, a film call that starts at 11 a.m. in September.
What to do. If you have an outdoor day between now and October, put water and shade on the plan before you lock the schedule. Name the litres, the tents, and when people will actually be in the sun.
Last fact-checked 27 August 2026.
